Tuesday, April 25, 2006

More MP3

I post some statistics about MP3 players, and what happens? Another MP3 survey.

This one is from Jacobs Media and is quoted in all of the trades this week.

Note that I’m basing my comments on what is being reported. I haven’t read the full study.

The survey found that MP3 player ownership is up from 21% to 35% among rock fans.

Well, how old are rock fans? What kind of fans? And does “rock fan” translate to “heavy consumers of music”? You and I need a reason to care about statistics applied to limited groups.

You can slice and dice this to fit your goal. In this case, it is apparently to show that MP3 is a big threat. But is it? Does owning an MP3 player make you a threat? Did radio stations consider 8 track players, cassettes and record players big threats?

My immediate reaction is: Young people will consume music any way and everywhere they can. Always have. Always will. I remember well that period, from age 16 to 22, when listening to commercial radio was frowned upon. And I worked in commercial radio!

No, I’ll be concerned when the post-rebellion age crowd starts substituting other things for radio listening. Let’s see those statistics.

The survey also showed that over half of alternative rock fans (an ever shrinking group by all reports) have MP3 players. And almost half of those who don’t own one are seriously thinking about getting one.

Here is a little research tip from the old pro: Don’t trust any survey question about intentions. Hey, I’m seriously thinking about moving to Maui. Really. But don’t hold your breath.

I’d rather ask them” Why haven’t you bought one yet, you slow, dim-witted, can’t keep up with the modern world slug?” Perhaps I’d phrase it differently.

My general suggestions for your own research are:

  1. Define the edge of your survey. How old? How young? Gender differences?

  2. Define your terms. For example, what exactly is a rock fan?

  3. Use some common sense. Kids own devices that play recorded music. Duh.

  4. Ask the smart question. Don’t ask people to answer things they can’t possibly know like what their purchase intentions are. Try to find out the factors that have guided their behavior to this point. Then think about what could change those factors.

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