Not as Bad as I Thought

Radio Ink and MusicBiz this week both reported on a study that was put together by Research Director, Inc. That is a company that has been doing sales and programming analysis of Arbitron diaries for decades.

We all know a couple of things (if only because the news media won’t stop telling us):

1. People have a lot less free time than ever before. Both husband and wife are working, hardly knowing how to find time to get the kids to soccer practice. After all, that second Suburban is expensive. Okay, so we are all worker bees.


2. We are getting killed by the iPod. Everybody has suddenly taken an extraordinary interest in spending their money on music, and spending the time to load it on their iPod, thus getting into the programming business. Doom for radio is only a matter of time. Fortunately, some radio stations are turning themselves into iPods before it is too late. I haven’t figured out how they get it right for each individual listener, but I write that off to my not having quite the experience to have learned about this yet.


3. Satellites are sucking out listeners and ratings like Homer and Jethro might attack crawfish in Louisiana. This is great for Howard Stern, but the rest of us are headed for welfare.


4. Speaking of Howard: He is, as best as I can understand from all the articles and television show interviews, the only thing on the radio that average Americans and Canadians want to hear. That line I saw around the block at my local Radio Shack was people lining up to buy satellite receivers. Of that I have no doubt.


5. Video games. Completely replacing radio.


6. Cable TV. Completely replacing radio.


7. Ballroom dancing. Completely replacing radio. Wait, I got carried away. I think we won that one.

I’m sure I left some factors out. But the message is clear. We’re getting clobbered.

Back to the study. Here is what they learned: TSL has dropped 3.4% in the past three years.

What!?

Excuse me while I yawn. You’re telling me that with everything going on in the modern world, with all the new choices, with network television leaking listeners like a submarine with screen doors, we are totally freaking out (and as an industry we really are freaking out) over a percent a year?

That is insane.

Would I prefer actual growth? Sure. We all would. How likely is that with all the new choices? I don’t know, but any thinking person might expect some loss of TSL to all the new choices out there. I’m just amazed at how little erosion we have suffered. From everything I’ve read and watched, you would think we should be pulling the plug next month.

I do appreciate that the big owners have set up the expectation with their stockholders that they will not only show a 50% profit this quarter, but also have that up to 75% by the end of the year. And yes, some of what is happening might be getting in their way. Don’t you feel their pain?

I’m NOT going to bring up the reduced budgets, homogenized programming, no effort to measure listener opinions and satisfaction, no interest in listeners under 25, no interest in listeners over 45, or the fact that nobody even knows how to ride levels anymore.

Okay, I AM going to bring up those things. In fact, we have a lot of radio programming that is less than it might be. Creativity can be hard to find. To be fair, I do see people trying new formats and format combinations. But their companies give them so little support that nobody learns anything, other than to be afraid when the regional guy calls. But that is for another time.

Bottom line: We are lucky that our losses are so small. Because we are not striving for excellence so much as we are striving for our quarterly revenue goals. And while I love making money, I can’t help believe that pushing hard for excellent service to our listeners might help reduce that huge 1% annual loss.

What do you think?

Steve