Minute by Minute Ratings?

I love analyzing ratings. I spent many years providing "InstantREPLAY" diary analysis for hundreds of radio stations.

And I'm sure that, if Arbitron makes the raw data available, we'll be able to do even more with the new PPM data.

Some Say: PPM Will Open Up A New World Of Incredible Detail

But. People are suggesting that you'll be able to see when bad song is aired, or a bad bit is done by the morning show.

If you're reading this, you're very likely an experienced programmer or air talent. You've spent a lot of time observing "normal" people as they listen to radio.

How Do People Actually Listen To Radio?

So let me ask you this question: Have you noticed that "normal" people tend to stop what they are doing and run to the radio every time they hear something they aren't excited about?

Let me ask you another question: Have you noticed that "normal" people tend to stop listening when they need to leave for work, pay attention in a conversation, start watching their favorite TV show, or get out of the car to go into the store?

Okay. I'm thinking you answered "NO" and "YES". If not, email me and explain how I'm confused. Because what I'm thinking at this point is that people live their lives, and radio tags along. They don't very often listen to radio is a very active way, focused like a laser beam on what is being aired.

My theory is that radio is a companion.

• It comes on and off at the convenience of the listener.
• Which station gets listened to depends on the mood of the listener, and which station they believe will likely support them at that moment.
• And if, over time, they find that their confidence in your station is misplaced, they will change their opinion. A different station will take your place.

Two Different Models

This is important. Because either...

• Radio listening is a process that involves mood, taste, and finding a station that is like a club you want to belong to.

or

• Radio is a surrogate iPod, and listeners are posed to signal their level of satisfaction with a quick flick of the dial or push of the button.

Which do you believe is the right model? To believe that PPM is going to move you into a world of minute by minute ratings analysis, you've got to have strong faith in the second possibility.

My belief has been that the first model is closer to reality. Should I reconsider?