How Old Should an Oldies Station Be?

Here in the United States we recently went through a period where oldies stations were being shut down in large numbers. Several of those stations, like WCBS in New York, were legendary stations in major markets. Several were owned by Infinity. And several oldies stations were flipped to the Jack format.

What I was told at the time by programming people with connections, including inside Infinity, was that oldies stations were being shut down because “advertisers don’t want a 45-54 audience”. As a proud member of this suddenly ancient demo, I took personal offense. I pointed out that I, at least, have a lot more money to spend now than when I was 20. But over and over I was told that this lack of interest in the 45-54 demo was fact. One consultant put it like this: “So many managers have told me this that it must be true”. Even programmers within the Infinity organization insisted that this was fact.

We already know that radio sales departments don’t want to hear about our under-25 numbers. If anybody over 44 is also unwanted, yikes! We are all destined to fight it out for 25-44. Not a small part of the population, but hardly big enough to sustain dozens or more stations in a market.

Jack is definitely a “35-44” format, with a secondary strength in “25-34”. So when it works, it would seem like an answer to Infinity’s problems. All the new “adult variety” formats seem to be attempts to create 35-44 friendly oldies stations.

So why do I bring this up now?

I’m bringing it up now because I had an opportunity to talk to a real live Infinity manager. I suddenly remembered this topic, and asked him about it. I wondered aloud why I was no longer a viable advertising target.

And here is the interesting part. He had no idea what I was talking about. As he explained: Infinity, and other companies, are every big as interested in and able to sell the 45-54 demo as they are interested in and able to sell the 35-44 demo.

I believe he was sincere. He doesn’t know how programming people got the idea that Infinity or any other radio group or advertisers had a problem with listeners age 45-54.

So what is the problem with oldie stations? Simply, each year, they are becoming more and more 55+.

Are the managers talking to the programmers? I swear, there are a lot of programming people running around fearful of the 45-54 demo now. They believe that the advertisers don’t want 45-54.

How did they get this idea? I don’t know, but it is widespread.

And this has an effect. Maybe some oldies stations didn’t need to be blown up, just to shore up the 45-54 demo. The less musically “active” 45-54 demo probably doesn’t need 1,500 song libraries like those offered by Jack/Bob/Hank/Max… stations. They probably do need more news, information, and more companionship from their station of choice.

In the United States, Classic Rock has a huge head start in terms of 45-54 men. Perhaps a smart programmer could figure out how to mutate that format just enough to make it female-friendly, without destroying the male appeal.

The lesson?

Perhaps there are two:

1. Managers and programmers within even the largest and most successful companies need to do a better job of exactly defining the problems and what would constitute acceptable solutions. If increased 45-54 would do it, don’t allow people to mistakenly think they have to drop the oldies age target by 20 years.


2. There is untapped programming potential out there. Perfect the ability to retool an aging oldies station to stabilize the 45-54 numbers, and then increase them (and don’t sabotage yourself by worrying about 35-44). You’ll be very much in demand.

With the leading edge of baby boomers just hitting 55, the 45-54 demo will be very hot for the next several years.

What do you think?

Not as Bad as I Thought

Radio Ink and MusicBiz this week both reported on a study that was put together by Research Director, Inc. That is a company that has been doing sales and programming analysis of Arbitron diaries for decades.

We all know a couple of things (if only because the news media won’t stop telling us):

1. People have a lot less free time than ever before. Both husband and wife are working, hardly knowing how to find time to get the kids to soccer practice. After all, that second Suburban is expensive. Okay, so we are all worker bees.


2. We are getting killed by the iPod. Everybody has suddenly taken an extraordinary interest in spending their money on music, and spending the time to load it on their iPod, thus getting into the programming business. Doom for radio is only a matter of time. Fortunately, some radio stations are turning themselves into iPods before it is too late. I haven’t figured out how they get it right for each individual listener, but I write that off to my not having quite the experience to have learned about this yet.


3. Satellites are sucking out listeners and ratings like Homer and Jethro might attack crawfish in Louisiana. This is great for Howard Stern, but the rest of us are headed for welfare.


4. Speaking of Howard: He is, as best as I can understand from all the articles and television show interviews, the only thing on the radio that average Americans and Canadians want to hear. That line I saw around the block at my local Radio Shack was people lining up to buy satellite receivers. Of that I have no doubt.


5. Video games. Completely replacing radio.


6. Cable TV. Completely replacing radio.


7. Ballroom dancing. Completely replacing radio. Wait, I got carried away. I think we won that one.

I’m sure I left some factors out. But the message is clear. We’re getting clobbered.

Back to the study. Here is what they learned: TSL has dropped 3.4% in the past three years.

What!?

Excuse me while I yawn. You’re telling me that with everything going on in the modern world, with all the new choices, with network television leaking listeners like a submarine with screen doors, we are totally freaking out (and as an industry we really are freaking out) over a percent a year?

That is insane.

Would I prefer actual growth? Sure. We all would. How likely is that with all the new choices? I don’t know, but any thinking person might expect some loss of TSL to all the new choices out there. I’m just amazed at how little erosion we have suffered. From everything I’ve read and watched, you would think we should be pulling the plug next month.

I do appreciate that the big owners have set up the expectation with their stockholders that they will not only show a 50% profit this quarter, but also have that up to 75% by the end of the year. And yes, some of what is happening might be getting in their way. Don’t you feel their pain?

I’m NOT going to bring up the reduced budgets, homogenized programming, no effort to measure listener opinions and satisfaction, no interest in listeners under 25, no interest in listeners over 45, or the fact that nobody even knows how to ride levels anymore.

Okay, I AM going to bring up those things. In fact, we have a lot of radio programming that is less than it might be. Creativity can be hard to find. To be fair, I do see people trying new formats and format combinations. But their companies give them so little support that nobody learns anything, other than to be afraid when the regional guy calls. But that is for another time.

Bottom line: We are lucky that our losses are so small. Because we are not striving for excellence so much as we are striving for our quarterly revenue goals. And while I love making money, I can’t help believe that pushing hard for excellent service to our listeners might help reduce that huge 1% annual loss.

What do you think?

Steve