AMT Show Rate

I received an email today from a client who was distraught.

The station conducted a library music test (AMT - auditorium music test) last night. The field service lined up 140 people who said they would show up. Only 70 did.

Clearly, something I thought was pretty much universally known, actually is not. Only 50% to 70% of the people who say they will show up actually will.

Usually, this is age dependent. In the 12-34 age range, expect 50%. That can rise to 70% if the respondents are 35 and older.

I think it is safe to say that most radio research companies work with 60%. That is, if the music test is designed for 120 respondents, they will ask the field service to recruit 200 people. 120 is 60% of 200.

If too many people show, then, yes, it does run up the costs. But it also increases the quality of  the research. And you can use the higher than normal rate when you plan the next music test.

Some research companies don't work this way. A few recruit with the assumption that 70% to 80% of the respondents will show up the night of the survey. If they get lucky, great. If they get a little unlucky, they usually convince the client to go forward, but with a slightly diminished sample. If they get a normal show rate, they will need to schedule a make-good test. But they expect to do that in most cases. The advantage is that they almost never wind up with extra respondents who run up the cost. The disadvantage is the need for the second night of testing, which has its own costs, and the delay in completing the data gathering.

One thing that a radio station can do is to set a target that actually is, while very nice, somewhat higher than what they really need. Then, a small recruit problem can still leave them with a usable sample.

But in any event, I strongly urge you to be realistic about show rates. If you do better than 60%, great! But for most stations, you should not count on it.